California Recall Prediction Contest

The winner of the prediction contest on MetaFilter for the California recall election is Escher:

	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Yes	56%	55.2%	0.8%
No	44%	44.8%	0.8%
Average Difference			0.8%

Bustamante	32%	31.9%	0.1%
McClintock	15%	13.4%	1.6%
Schwarzenegger	43%	48.5%	5.5%
Camejo/Others	9%	6.2%	2.8%
Average Difference			2.5%

Escher not only won the contest -- he helped make it happen: "I'm voting for Arnold myself. Registered democrat, but i think Davis has done a horrible job and i think Bustamonte would do worse."

A combined 3.3% off from the two votes, Escher edged second-place finisher qDot at 3.75%. There's no contact information in his profile, so if he wants the Perfect Pancake and the Domu-Kun, he needs to send me e-mail.

The average MetaFilter prediction was a combined 2.84% off and would have won the contest:

	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Yes	54.18696%	55.2%	1.013043%
No	45.71739%	44.8%	0.917391%
Average Difference			0.965217%

Bustamante	32.64%	31.9%	0.74%
McClintock	12.04%	13.4%	1.36%
Schwarzenegger	45.57333%	48.5%	2.826667%
Camejo/Others	8.88%	6.2%	2.58%
Average Difference			1.876667%

The worst prediction was made by ook:

	Prediction	Actual	Difference
Yes	40%	55.2%	15.2%
No	60%	44.8%	15.2%
Average Difference			15.2%

Bustamante	45%	31.9%	13.1%
McClintock	10%	13.4%	3.4%
Schwarzenegger	35%	48.5%	13.5%
Camejo/Others	10%	6.2%	3.8%
Average Difference			8.45%

Full results:

Politics · California · 2003/10/08 · 0 COMMENTS · Link