California Recall Prediction Contest

Domo-kunThe winner of the prediction contest on MetaFilter for the California recall election is Escher:

 PredictionActualDifference
Yes56%55.2%0.8%
No44%44.8%0.8%
Average Difference0.8%
 
Bustamante32%31.9%0.1%
McClintock15%13.4%1.6%
Schwarzenegger43%48.5%5.5%
Camejo/Others9%6.2%2.8%
Average Difference2.5%

Escher not only won the contest -- he helped make it happen: "I'm voting for Arnold myself. Registered democrat, but i think Davis has done a horrible job and i think Bustamonte would do worse."

A combined 3.3% off from the two votes, Escher edged second-place finisher qDot at 3.75%. There's no contact information in his profile, so if he wants the Perfect Pancake and the Domu-Kun, he needs to send me e-mail.

The average MetaFilter prediction was a combined 2.84% off and would have won the contest:

 PredictionActualDifference
Yes54.18696%55.2%1.013043%
No45.71739%44.8%0.917391%
Average Difference0.965217%
 
Bustamante32.64%31.9%0.74%
McClintock12.04%13.4%1.36%
Schwarzenegger45.57333%48.5%2.826667%
Camejo/Others8.88%6.2%2.58%
Average Difference1.876667%

The worst prediction was made by ook:

 PredictionActualDifference
Yes40%55.2%15.2%
No60%44.8%15.2%
Average Difference15.2%
 
Bustamante45%31.9%13.1%
McClintock10%13.4%3.4%
Schwarzenegger35%48.5%13.5%
Camejo/Others10%6.2%3.8%
Average Difference8.45%

Full results:

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