I found myself wondering today why Ron Paul has been completely absent from media coverage of the Merrill Lynch sale and Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Paul, more than any other candidate for president this year, made an issue of the government's management of the economy and how he believes we're being led off a cliff. He would no doubt have a lot to say, given his remarks in May against proposed House bills to bail out mortgage lenders:
It is neither morally right nor fiscally wise to socialize private losses in this way.
The solution is for government to stop micromanaging the economy and let the market adjust, as painful as that will be for some. We should not force taxpayers, including renters and more frugal homeowners, to switch places with the speculators and take on those same risks that bankrupted them. It is a terrible idea to spread the financial crisis any wider or deeper than it already is, and to prolong the agony years into the future. Socializing the losses now will only create more unintended consequences that will give new excuses for further government interventions in the future. This is how government grows - by claiming to correct the mistakes it earlier created, all the while constantly shaking down the taxpayer. The market needs a chance to correct itself, and Congress needs to avoid making the situation worse by pretending to ride to the rescue.
In a search of Google News, I could find no evidence that Paul has been interviewed about the current financial crisis. I did find a speech he made on the floor of the House of Representatives in March.
The text of his speech also is online.
Hurricane Ike is going to kill a lot of people who don't evacuate Galveston and the surrounding Texas coast before it strikes tonight. I just heard a disturbing report on MSNBC that disabled residents have yet to be evacuated and can't reach emergency authorities on the phone. Weather Underground Jeff Masters offers this grim assessment:
Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. ... Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border.
We helped talk some relatives into evacuating Houston. The last massive storm to strike Galveston, the 1900 hurricane, killed from 6,000 to 12,000 residents -- one third of the town's population -- and rewrote Texas history. Before the storm, Galveston was the largest cotton port in the U.S. and one of the state's largest economic centers, home to 18 different newspapers. Afterward, Houston took its place.
An old black-and-white hepcat commercial for Beech-Nut Gum made me curious if the gum -- available in five flavors including Chlorophyll "for the breath" -- is still being sold anywhere.
Hometown Favorites, an online store that sells 2,000 well-known old-time products that are difficult to find today in stores, claims that Beech-Nut Spearmint and Wintergreen Gum is no longer being made. Beechies are available in spearmint and peppermint.
Wasilla, Alaska, isn't the only place that has charged rape victims for the cost of evidence to prosecute their attackers. Minnesota Public Radio's News Cut blog finds that North Carolina followed the same policy as Sarah Palin's town during her term as mayor:
Last winter, the Raleigh News & Observer in North Carolina uncovered a similar policy on a statewide basis.
The vast majority of the 3,000 or so emergency room patients examined for sexual assaults each year shoulder some of the cost of a rape kit test, according to state records and victim advocates. For some, it's as little as a $50 insurance co-payment. For those without insurance, it's hundreds of dollars left when a state program designed to help reaches its limit.
Apparently, the practice is more common than most people think. said Ilse Knecht, deputy director of public policy at the National Center for Victims of Crime in an interview with U.S. News & World Report. "We've heard so many stories of victims paying for their exams, or not being able to and then creditors coming after them."
"The bottom line is these services cost money," Rebecca Andrews, a hospital's vice president of finance told the paper. "We do sometimes forgive. It's case by case. But where do you stop? We treat gunshot wounds, stabbings, abused children. No one asked for that to happen."
"I couldn't believe they would send me a bill for this," a rape victim from Pittsboro, N.C., told the News & Observer. "I didn't ask for this to happen. The whole point of me going was to get evidence for the case."
According to News Cut, Barack Obama sponsored a 2001 bill in the Illinois State Legislature to ensure that rape victims in the state were reimbursed for "out-of-pocket medical expenses, loss of earnings, psychological counseling, and loss of support income due to the crime."
A lot of issues that crop up during the heat of a presidential campaign fade into obscurity after they're politically played out. This one shouldn't. Any place in the U.S. that bills rape victims for the cost of collecting evidence should be made to answer for the practice, which manages to be both cruel to victims and soft on crime. How many rapists evade justice because their victims refused treatment to avoid an expensive medical bill? How many rape victims suffer damaged credit because they couldn't pay this bill?
During the first four years that Sarah Palin was mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, the town's police department charged women who had been raped with the cost of "rape kits," the $300 to $1,200 exams necessary to collect evidence of the sex assault. A May 20, 2000, article in The Frontiersman, Wasilla's hometown newspaper, provides the details:
Wasilla Police Chief Charlie Fannon does not agree with the new legislation, saying the law will require the city and communities to come up with more funds to cover the costs of the forensic exams.
In the past we've charged the cost of exams to the victim's insurance company when possible. I just don't want to see any more burden put on the taxpayer, Fannon said.
According to Fannon, the new law will cost the Wasilla Police Department approximately $5,000 to $14,000 a year to collect evidence for sexual assault cases.
Ultimately it is the criminal who should bear the burden of the added costs, Fannon said.
The policy was changed by an Alaskan state law that was written specifically to prevent Wasilla from continuing to charge women for the evidence necessary to prosecute their attackers, according to the bill's author Eric Croft (D-Anchorage).
Since 1976, Alaska has ranked every year in the top five for rapes, with a rate currently 2.2 times the national average, according to the state's Health and Social Services department.
In a 2006 gubernatorial debate, Palin said that she opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest.
The candidates were pressed on their stances on abortion and were even asked what they would do if their own daughters were raped and became pregnant.
Palin said she would support abortion only if the mother's life was in danger. When it came to her daughter, she said, "I would choose life."
Update: "It was more than a couple of cases, and it was standard practice in Wasilla," Peggy Wilcox of the Alaska Public Employees Association told USA Today for a story filed Thursday morning on this policy. "If you were raped in Wasilla, this was going to happen to you."
Here's a nice example of the thimble-deep thinking that passes for political journalism in the mainstream media these days. On ABC News, journalists Jake Tapper and Matt Jaffe mock Joe Biden for giving a substantive answer to a reporter's question about whether he still supports a tripartite solution to divide Iraq into separate Kurd, Shia and Sunni areas.
Tapper and Jaffe count the time he took to answer the reporter -- "13 minutes, 20 seconds" -- but they don't offer a single word of insight about what he actually said. They just pass along the transcript, without paragraph breaks, and ridicule him as a "verbose Blue Hen." I guess they were hoping for a soundbite that they could pair with an opposing soundbite from the McCain campaign and call it a day.
If you actually read Biden's answer, it's an intelligent and persuasive take on the subject. Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, spent more time than any other presidential candidate this year working out the details of a potential political solution in Iraq, and it shows. His answer demonstrates his expertise and passion for achieving a workable peace in the country:
The Bush administration's policy in the beginning -- and John's -- continues to be a strong, central government, democracy, that will gain the confidence of all the Iraqi people that would be a democratic institution that would make the dominoes of the oligarchies fall in the Middle East. That was success, that's what they talked about.
Now what's happened? Where there's relative peace, where is it? It's up in the Kurdish area. Where? Where they don't allow Shia troops to come up. Where they don't allow the Iraqi army to come up without their permission. There is now relative calm in Anbar. Why? They did exactly what I proposed two years ago. They turned over authority and trained homegrown local Sh-- Sunnis. And said, "We promise you, those Shia aren't coming and patrolling your streets." That's called the awakening. That's what got all of the sheikhs to come together and say OK.
I predicted if you ask the sheikhs to have their sons join the army or join the police force, the security forces, and you told them they'd protect their own area, they'd join in droves. The first day Petraeus wisely made that offer, 1,000 Sunnis showed up for the police force. Virtually none showed up before.
So, what's happening? Where's it working? It's working from the ground up. Exactly what I've proposed is happening. We're about to have regional elections. What are the regional elections? The Iraqi constitution says in article 114, 15, 16, it says that any of these areas can conclude that they want to be, not a governate, there's 18 of these things, but they can be essentially a state, like the state of California or the state of Massachusetts. They can write their own constitution. They can have their own laws relative what you teach your kids in school, like California versus Alabama. They can have their own laws, their own security force, their own cops, not a national police force sent out. That's why it's working.
And the second reason why it's working is that, so far is, what else did they do? They did exactly what I've been calling for for two years. It's the mix of forces. You may remember, if you had to cover this, my saying it's the wrong mix of forces in Iraq. We need counterinsurgency forces. And what did they do? They brought them back from Afghanistan, unfortunately, instead of adding them. And what happened? The counterinsurgency forces are now the forces that, today and yesterday, the military says are having the most success.
So, folks, they may not want to call it what I was talking about. But the end result is, there is a lot of autonomy in the Anbar province today. There is a lot of autonomy up in the Kurdish area today. And there is increasing autonomy in the Shia regions. But I've always proposed a central government. A central government that has a standing army, controls the currency, controls the banking system, controls the borders, controls the foreign policy.
And so, you know, John says he wants to have every shred of Iranian influence eliminated from Iraq. And he supports Maliki. You notice, every time Ahmadinejad comes to Baghdad, Maliki kisses him on both cheeks. Literally, not figuratively. You notice, before agreed to begin to negotiate the Status of Forces Agreement, what did, what did Maliki think he had to do? He had to get on a plane to go to Tehran and talk about it with the Iranians. 'Cause look, folks. It's a geographic fact of life, they've got a long border and a 5,000-year history.
So, it's about time we get real here and take a look at the possibilities now, if they continue along these lines, of something good happening. And the possibilities rest in two things. One, there's a genuine political accommodation. And so, you're going to have, as I said, elections in the provinces. Supposedly -- and by the way they're supposed to take place next month. I've been predicting they're not likely to take place next month. But maybe they will. If they will, do you think the people down in Basra are going to vote for a government in Basra any different than an all-Shia government in Basra? what do you think? Want to take any bets anyone? So, come on.
It's time that we had people who understand, understand what's going on in Iraq, not just sloganeering. Not just sloganeering. And the irony is, the guy who supposedly has the least experience among us, Barack Obama, got it right 14, 15 months ago. He said, "Look, let's transfer -- let's be as responsible getting out as irresponsibly we were getting in." And then he said, "We need a timeline here. And you're going to go ahead and hand off authority gradually to Iraqis, and what are you going to do? You're going to pull out American combat forces." Where, if reports are correct, and my information is based on the State Department and others, what is Maliki demanding, and what is Bush agreeing to? A timeline to draw down American combat troops. A gradual hand-off of police authority and military authority to the Iraqis.
Who's the only guy, major figure in America who's standing outside that agreement? John McCain. John.
And the other point I made today, and it's an important point, since you poor devils have to cover me, you should be aware of it in my view: John, I've never heard John utter a word about what he's going to do, after, after -- quote he establishes victory in Iraq? What's he going to do about Syria? Turkey? Iran? Saudi Arabia? What's he going to do to have some reason to believe whatever is worked out, that Iraqi's neighbors are going to sign on to it? And tell me, how is it possible to have a long-term stable, stable Iraq, free and open without some regional understanding of Iraq's independence? Barack and I, and I have laid this out in painful detail for two years, as Barack has.
That's why we've called for a regional conference. That's why we talked about the need to bring the permanent five of the United Nations in to give the imprimatur to this. To make it clear to Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia -- hands off. Hands off. Whatever deal the Iraqis work out, you've got to stand by. You need the weight of the world putting pressure on the region a little like we did in Bosnia. A little like what happened in Kosovo.
Could that have happened if the Germans didn't buy into the deal? If the Greeks didn't buy into the deal? If the Italians didn't buy into the deal? If the Hungarians didn't buy into the deal? So, what I -- what confuses me, and it does confuse me about John McCain and Sarah Palin's position on Iraq is, tell me the end of the story, John. Victory sounds wonderful. We're all for victory. What do you mean by victory?
And so, I just say, there's, you know, you can call -- and by the way, you recall when I put forward that plan, I said there's a half a dozen ways you can implement this plan. I don't have any -- It wasn't three areas, it doesn't have to be five, it can be two, it can be seven. But there's got to be a way where we finally, if you have peace -- "Hey, I'm a Shia. I'm not going to kill your Sunni family. And you don't have to worry the Kurds are going to come and get you, because the Kurds are basically with you."
Everybody has to get to the point where they conclude there's more in it for them staying together than there is in it them going separately.
To their credit, CBS News and Fox News filed real stories on Biden's remarks.
Somewhere along the line, political reporters became so jaded that they started treating presidential elections as a game. Covering real issues is hard work, so media hacks spend their time trumping up non-stories, grading politicians on perception instead of substance, and obsessing constantly over polls.
Sen. Biden genuinely cares about achieving a victory in Iraq that lets us get the hell out with minimal loss of life. He's a vice presidential candidate and one of the most respected elder statesmen in the Democratic Party. You'd think that his thoughts on Iraq might be worth taking seriously.
The Ted Marshall Open Television Death Pool, a contest to predict the shows most likely to be cancelled during the new fall TV season, is now underway. Eligible shows are first-run comedies, dramas, news and game shows on ABC, CBS, CW, FOX or NBC. Here's my picks, from most to least likely:
All the shows I picked are new except for ER, which NBC has announced is in its final season, and Eli Stone, a low-rated drama in its second season that barely survived cancellation. I did some number crunching with Java and Microsoft Excel on the death pool predictions to figure out the collective will of the 94 sad obsessives who entered the pool. Here's our top 10 doomed shows:
Among shows that were around last season, the most anticipated for cancellation are ER, Boston Legal, Scrubs and According to Jim. If you share my interest in television sabremetrics, TV By the Numbers is a blog that's obsessed with crunching numbers associated with the TV industry. I got my Eli Stone pick by using that blog's Renew/Cancel Index, a formula they invented to predict which shows will be cancelled based on their ratings.
For scripted shows, the line was clear. Maintain an adults 18-49 viewership above of 92% of your network average and you're going to be renewed. Only 2 shows that did that (Bionic Woman, Big Shots) were cancelled.
Fail to exceed 92% of your network's average adults 18-49 average viewership and you're almost certainly cancelled. Only 6 shows below that line survived.
One number I haven't seen yet: The odds that entering a TV death pool will be more entertaining than watching the shows.