ABC News Can't Be Bothered with Iraq

Here's a nice example of the thimble-deep thinking that passes for political journalism in the mainstream media these days. On ABC News, journalists Jake Tapper and Matt Jaffe mock Joe Biden for giving a substantive answer to a reporter's question about whether he still supports a tripartite solution to divide Iraq into separate Kurd, Shia and Sunni areas.

Tapper and Jaffe count the time he took to answer the reporter -- "13 minutes, 20 seconds" -- but they don't offer a single word of insight about what he actually said. They just pass along the transcript, without paragraph breaks, and ridicule him as a "verbose Blue Hen." I guess they were hoping for a soundbite that they could pair with an opposing soundbite from the McCain campaign and call it a day.

If you actually read Biden's answer, it's an intelligent and persuasive take on the subject. Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, spent more time than any other presidential candidate this year working out the details of a potential political solution in Iraq, and it shows. His answer demonstrates his expertise and passion for achieving a workable peace in the country:

The Bush administration's policy in the beginning -- and John's -- continues to be a strong, central government, democracy, that will gain the confidence of all the Iraqi people that would be a democratic institution that would make the dominoes of the oligarchies fall in the Middle East. That was success, that's what they talked about.

Now what's happened? Where there's relative peace, where is it? It's up in the Kurdish area. Where? Where they don't allow Shia troops to come up. Where they don't allow the Iraqi army to come up without their permission. There is now relative calm in Anbar. Why? They did exactly what I proposed two years ago. They turned over authority and trained homegrown local Sh-- Sunnis. And said, "We promise you, those Shia aren't coming and patrolling your streets." That's called the awakening. That's what got all of the sheikhs to come together and say OK.

I predicted if you ask the sheikhs to have their sons join the army or join the police force, the security forces, and you told them they'd protect their own area, they'd join in droves. The first day Petraeus wisely made that offer, 1,000 Sunnis showed up for the police force. Virtually none showed up before.

So, what's happening? Where's it working? It's working from the ground up. Exactly what I've proposed is happening. We're about to have regional elections. What are the regional elections? The Iraqi constitution says in article 114, 15, 16, it says that any of these areas can conclude that they want to be, not a governate, there's 18 of these things, but they can be essentially a state, like the state of California or the state of Massachusetts. They can write their own constitution. They can have their own laws relative what you teach your kids in school, like California versus Alabama. They can have their own laws, their own security force, their own cops, not a national police force sent out. That's why it's working.

And the second reason why it's working is that, so far is, what else did they do? They did exactly what I've been calling for for two years. It's the mix of forces. You may remember, if you had to cover this, my saying it's the wrong mix of forces in Iraq. We need counterinsurgency forces. And what did they do? They brought them back from Afghanistan, unfortunately, instead of adding them. And what happened? The counterinsurgency forces are now the forces that, today and yesterday, the military says are having the most success.

So, folks, they may not want to call it what I was talking about. But the end result is, there is a lot of autonomy in the Anbar province today. There is a lot of autonomy up in the Kurdish area today. And there is increasing autonomy in the Shia regions. But I've always proposed a central government. A central government that has a standing army, controls the currency, controls the banking system, controls the borders, controls the foreign policy.

And so, you know, John says he wants to have every shred of Iranian influence eliminated from Iraq. And he supports Maliki. You notice, every time Ahmadinejad comes to Baghdad, Maliki kisses him on both cheeks. Literally, not figuratively. You notice, before agreed to begin to negotiate the Status of Forces Agreement, what did, what did Maliki think he had to do? He had to get on a plane to go to Tehran and talk about it with the Iranians. 'Cause look, folks. It's a geographic fact of life, they've got a long border and a 5,000-year history.

So, it's about time we get real here and take a look at the possibilities now, if they continue along these lines, of something good happening. And the possibilities rest in two things. One, there's a genuine political accommodation. And so, you're going to have, as I said, elections in the provinces. Supposedly -- and by the way they're supposed to take place next month. I've been predicting they're not likely to take place next month. But maybe they will. If they will, do you think the people down in Basra are going to vote for a government in Basra any different than an all-Shia government in Basra? what do you think? Want to take any bets anyone? So, come on.

It's time that we had people who understand, understand what's going on in Iraq, not just sloganeering. Not just sloganeering. And the irony is, the guy who supposedly has the least experience among us, Barack Obama, got it right 14, 15 months ago. He said, "Look, let's transfer -- let's be as responsible getting out as irresponsibly we were getting in." And then he said, "We need a timeline here. And you're going to go ahead and hand off authority gradually to Iraqis, and what are you going to do? You're going to pull out American combat forces." Where, if reports are correct, and my information is based on the State Department and others, what is Maliki demanding, and what is Bush agreeing to? A timeline to draw down American combat troops. A gradual hand-off of police authority and military authority to the Iraqis.

Who's the only guy, major figure in America who's standing outside that agreement? John McCain. John.

And the other point I made today, and it's an important point, since you poor devils have to cover me, you should be aware of it in my view: John, I've never heard John utter a word about what he's going to do, after, after -- quote he establishes victory in Iraq? What's he going to do about Syria? Turkey? Iran? Saudi Arabia? What's he going to do to have some reason to believe whatever is worked out, that Iraqi's neighbors are going to sign on to it? And tell me, how is it possible to have a long-term stable, stable Iraq, free and open without some regional understanding of Iraq's independence? Barack and I, and I have laid this out in painful detail for two years, as Barack has.

That's why we've called for a regional conference. That's why we talked about the need to bring the permanent five of the United Nations in to give the imprimatur to this. To make it clear to Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia -- hands off. Hands off. Whatever deal the Iraqis work out, you've got to stand by. You need the weight of the world putting pressure on the region a little like we did in Bosnia. A little like what happened in Kosovo.

Could that have happened if the Germans didn't buy into the deal? If the Greeks didn't buy into the deal? If the Italians didn't buy into the deal? If the Hungarians didn't buy into the deal? So, what I -- what confuses me, and it does confuse me about John McCain and Sarah Palin's position on Iraq is, tell me the end of the story, John. Victory sounds wonderful. We're all for victory. What do you mean by victory?

And so, I just say, there's, you know, you can call -- and by the way, you recall when I put forward that plan, I said there's a half a dozen ways you can implement this plan. I don't have any -- It wasn't three areas, it doesn't have to be five, it can be two, it can be seven. But there's got to be a way where we finally, if you have peace -- "Hey, I'm a Shia. I'm not going to kill your Sunni family. And you don't have to worry the Kurds are going to come and get you, because the Kurds are basically with you."

Everybody has to get to the point where they conclude there's more in it for them staying together than there is in it them going separately.

To their credit, CBS News and Fox News filed real stories on Biden's remarks.

Somewhere along the line, political reporters became so jaded that they started treating presidential elections as a game. Covering real issues is hard work, so media hacks spend their time trumping up non-stories, grading politicians on perception instead of substance, and obsessing constantly over polls.

Sen. Biden genuinely cares about achieving a victory in Iraq that lets us get the hell out with minimal loss of life. He's a vice presidential candidate and one of the most respected elder statesmen in the Democratic Party. You'd think that his thoughts on Iraq might be worth taking seriously.

Politics · Journalism · 2008/09/10 · 5 COMMENTS · Link

Predicting Doomed Television Shows

The Ted Marshall Open Television Death Pool, a contest to predict the shows most likely to be cancelled during the new fall TV season, is now underway. Eligible shows are first-run comedies, dramas, news and game shows on ABC, CBS, CW, FOX or NBC. Here's my picks, from most to least likely:

• ER (NBC)
• 90210 (CW)
• Opportunity Knocks (ABC)
• The Mentalist (CBS)
• Life On Mars (ABC)
• Privileged (CW)
• Eli Stone (ABC)
• Easy Money (CW)
• My Own Worst Enemy (NBC)
• The Ex List (CBS)

All the shows I picked are new except for ER, which NBC has announced is in its final season, and Eli Stone, a low-rated drama in its second season that barely survived cancellation. I did some number crunching with Java and Microsoft Excel on the death pool predictions to figure out the collective will of the 94 sad obsessives who entered the pool. Here's our top 10 doomed shows:

• ER (NBC)
• Gary Unmarried (CBS)
• Crusoe (NBC)
• Valentine Inc. (CW)
• Kath and Kim (NBC)
• Knight Rider (NBC)
• The Ex List (CBS)
• The Mentalist (CBS)
• Do Not Disturb (FOX)
• Opportunity Knocks (ABC)

Among shows that were around last season, the most anticipated for cancellation are ER, Boston Legal, Scrubs and According to Jim. If you share my interest in television sabremetrics, TV By the Numbers is a blog that's obsessed with crunching numbers associated with the TV industry. I got my Eli Stone pick by using that blog's Renew/Cancel Index, a formula they invented to predict which shows will be cancelled based on their ratings.

For scripted shows, the line was clear. Maintain an adults 18-49 viewership above of 92% of your network average and you're going to be renewed. Only 2 shows that did that (Bionic Woman, Big Shots) were cancelled.

Fail to exceed 92% of your network's average adults 18-49 average viewership and you're almost certainly cancelled. Only 6 shows below that line survived.

One number I haven't seen yet: The odds that entering a TV death pool will be more entertaining than watching the shows.

Television · 2008/09/09 · 4 COMMENTS · Link

Booker Shortlist Omits Salman Rushdie, Joseph O'Neill

There were some surprises in today's announcement of the shortlist for the Man Booker Prize -- the books by betting favorites Salman Rushdie, The Enchantress of Florence, and Joseph O'Neill, Netherland, didn't make the cut.

Literary critic Joseph Sutherland was so sure Rushdie would win the Booker that he wrote, "If The Enchantress of Florence doesn't win this year’s Man Booker I'll curry my proof copy and eat it." (He backed off the promise today.)

The nominees for the prize, which will be announced Oct. 14:

• Aravind Adiga, The White Tiger
• Sebastian Barry, The Secret Scripture
• Amitav Ghosh, Sea of Poppies
• Linda Grant, The Clothes on Their Backs
• Philip Hensher, The Northern Clemency
• Steve Toltz, A Fraction of the Whole

I expected Netherland, which I recently reviewed, to make the list. I'm currently reading The Secret Scripture, the only one of the shortlisted books that made it across the ocean to my local Barnes & Noble.

Books · 2008/09/09 · 2 COMMENTS · Link

Palin Dodges Question About Indicted Alaskan Senator

At a campaign stop this weekend in an Albuquerque, N.M., restaurant, John McCain and Sarah Palin had the misfortune of running into a pesky voter, as AmericaBlog relates:

McCain worked his way up to me and Cat and as I shook his hand, I asked, "Sir, I respect your service but, why were you against the GI bill?" Senator McCain, paused, he looked a bit surprised at the question and then he said, "Nice to meet you." I repeated the question and he repeated his non-answer. He quickly worked his way down the line. So much for straight-talk! ...

Sarah Palin was next! I couldn't resist trying for a better photo. It is still blurry, but talk about a close encounter.

Sarah first looked at Caterina said hello, and I shook her hand. I asked, "Are [you] supporting Ted Stevens this year?" She replied, "He's under indictment you know ... his trial is in September." I replied, "But are you voting for him?" She walked away without answering.

The Ted Stevens question is a really good one. Palin claims to have stood up to Republican corruption in her state, and Stevens is the worst of the bunch. He's running for the Senate while under federal indictment for failing to report $250,000 in home repairs and gifts from an oil pipeline construction company.

Contrary to her image, Palin's closely affiliated with Stevens, the first sitting U.S. senator to face criminal charges in 15 years. She served as directory of his 527 group Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service from its founding in 2003 through 2005, appeared with him in a campaign commercial during her gubernatorial run, and was a supporter of his Bridge to Nowhere project -- which she repeatedly lies about today in speeches and ads.

It's interesting that she won't tell people whether she's voting for him this November, even though he's in the race of his life against Democratic challenger Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage.

So Palin's choice is to back her fellow Republican, as she's done for years, or throw him under the bus and help Democrats get closer to that 60-seat majority in the Senate.

Politics · 2008/09/08 · 7 COMMENTS · Link

Give 'Em Hell, Joe

Joe Biden was in rare form yesterday at a campaign appearance in Langhorne, Pa., responding to the Republican National Convention with a list of things that John McCain and Sarah Palin left out of their speeches.

Biden lacks the celebrity status of Palin, but he's perfect for the job required of a vice presidential candidate -- taking the fight directly to the opposition. Palin got some nice sarcastic shots in during her acceptance speech, but she's so green the McCain campaign is hiding her from the press, according to Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic.

A senior McCain campaign official advises that, despite the gaggle of requests and pressure from the media, Gov. Sarah Palin won't submit to a formal interview anytime soon. She may take some questions from local news entities in Alaska, but until she's ready -- and until she's comfortable -- which might not be for a long while -- the media will have to wait. The campaign believes it can effectively deal with the media's complaints, and their on-the-record response to all this will be: "Sarah Palin needs to spend time with the voters."

Advantage Obama.

Politics · 2008/09/06 · 8 COMMENTS · Link

Presidents Without Executive Experience

Jonathan Bourne, my unindicted coconspiritor on the Drudge Retort, answered an interesting question on his blog: Which presidents ran for the job with no prior government experience as an executive?

Below is a list of Presidents were never a U.S. Vice President, a major Cabinet Secretary, governor or mayor.

• John F. Kennedy
• Dwight Eisenhower
• (Herbert Hoover prior to becoming President had served as Secretary of Commerce)
• (William Howard Taft prior to becoming President was Provisional Governor of Cuba)
• Benjamin Harrison
• James A. Garfield
• Ulysses S. Grant
• Abraham Lincoln
• Franklin Pierce
• Zachary Taylor
• (Andrew Jackson prior to becoming President was the first Military Governor of Florida -- I'm not sure if that's more a military position or an Executive position)
• George Washington prior to becoming President was our nation's first Commander In Chief, but this was at the time a military position. Washington had Legislative experience -- he was elected to the Virginia House of Burgesses and was elected president of the Constitutional Convention of 1787.

Unlike Sara Palin, I think America benefited from the service of Executive branch novices like Lincoln, Eisenhower and Kennedy.

Whomever our next President is, one thing's for certain -- he'll be the first President in over 40 years to have had no Executive Branch experience.

I'm glad the next president is going to come from the Senate, where they'll have working knowledge of how Washington functions. Governors are overrated.

Politics · 2008/09/05 · 42 COMMENTS · Link

Rogers Has Four Alma Maters

Sarah Palin switched colleges six times in six years: the University of Hawaii-Hilo (a few weeks), Hawaii Pacific University (one semester), North Idaho College (two semesters), University of Idaho (two semesters), Matanuska-Susitna College (one semester) and then back to the University of Idaho (three semesters), where she graduated in spring 1987 with a degree in journalism.

I thought I was insane for attending four colleges: Stephen F. Austin State University (one semester), Richland Junior College (one semester), University of Texas-Arlington (two semesters), and finally the University of North Texas (nine semesters), where I also graduated with a degree in journalism four years after she did.

Taking a path that circuituous through college had serious drawbacks, but I met my future wife at University of Texas-Arlington and we ended up at a great school by transferring to UNT. You have no idea how many credits you lose by switching schools so often. I earned 24 credits my first semester at Stephen F. Austin and it still took me six years to earn another 104 credits and graduate.

Education · Politics · 2008/09/05 · 2 COMMENTS · Link

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